Source: Kwaramba, P., “The Socio-Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS on
Communal Agricultural Production Systems in Zimbabwe,
Zimbabwe Farmers’ Union and Friederich Ebert Stiftung,
Harare, December 1997.
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Malawi 2002. Percentage Of Households That Changed Their Crop Mix
Source: Shah, M.K., Osborne, N., Mbilizi, T., Vilili, G.,
Impact of HIV/AIDS on Agricultural Productivity and
rural Livelihoods in the Central Region of Malawi,
CARE International in Malawi, January 2002. P. 46
Malawi 2002.Percentage Of Households That Left Land Fallow
Source: Shah, M.K., Osborne, N., Mbilizi, T., Vilili, G.,
Impact of HIV/AIDS on Agricultural Productivity and
rural Livelihoods in the Central Region of Malawi,
CARE International in Malawi, January 2002. P. 47
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Kenya: impact 2002
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half of the deceased prime-age men were in the highest per capita income quartile in the 1997 survey- a positive correlation between HIV infection and socio-economic status,
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the prevalence of adult death is concentrated in particular areas - Nyanza Province
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after the death of a household head or spouse, households unable to maintain household sizes
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death of a household head associated with 60% reduction in the value of the household’s crop production
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gender of the deceased adult affects the type of crop suffering a shortfall.
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Grain crops are adversely affected in the case of adult female mortality
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“cash crops” such as coffee, tea, and sugar are most adversely affected in households experiencing the death of the male household head.
Takashi Yamano. T. S. Jayne, Melody McNeil: Measuring the Impacts of Adult Death on Rural Households in Kenya, April 2002, World Bank, Washington DC, unpublished paper.
LIMITATIONS OF HOUSEHOLD STUDIES
WHY THIS IS A NEW SITUATION
IMPACT ON THE POLICY ENVIRONMENT
A Long Wave Event
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Long wave epidemic
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Slow, steady depletion of agricultural and rural resources and livelihoods
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Increasing food insecurity
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More “famines”, more emergencies, less recovery potential
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Africa is only the first such epicentre
Long Waves and Emergencies
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These emergencies are not like others
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We have to recognise that the entire balance between relief, rehabilitation and development work has changed
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The long wave of the epidemic means that policy, operations and thinking must switch into a new paradigm - we are no longer talking about an emergency-non emergency paradigm
The current food shortage in southern Africa is probably exacerbated by the second decade of an HIV/AIDS epidemic
This has weakened the agricultural sector’s ability to respond to natural and environmental uncertainty
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CURRENT FOOD CRISES IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
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SOUND IMPACT ASSESSMENTS ARE RARE
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Expensive
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Politically unattractive
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Have no clear immediate return
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Submerged by medical dominance
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Submerged by prevention approaches
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Methodologically complex
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“Causation” hard to demonstrate
RESPONSES
Recovery potential is diminished
MOST PROPOSED RESPONSES
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are repetitions of what has not previously worked under non-AIDS conditions and now have to be shown to work under very changed AIDS conditions
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THIS IS THE KEY CHALLENGE FOR THIS WORKSHOP
A WHEEL THAT DID NOT WORK FIRST TIME?
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we are once again dealing with familiar problems of adoption and relevance
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these problems have not been adequately dealt with in non-AIDS attempts at “development”
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WE SHOULD NOT EXPECT IT TO BE EASIER/SAME IN AN HIV/AIDS ENVIRONMENT
CAN WE ASSUME THAT
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there is a category of things called “what has worked” or
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that if there were they would work under the changed circumstances
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OR do we have to consider the possibility that the category of “deliverable” needs to be rethought.
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It might not be “things” so much as processes which enable engagement with the problems in the newly changed/changing environment.
RESPONSE PROBLEMS
RESPONSES?
WORDS: EMPOWERMENT, MAINSTREAMING, PARTICIPATION, LABOUR SAVING TECHNOLOGIES, STAKEHOLDER
DEEDS???
INTIMATIONS OF THE WAY FORWARD?
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Relief + “development
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“ladder” approach - Uganda project?
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combining ARVs with interventions - a necessity?
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Considering dramatically different solutions: relax auditing requirements, provide ARVs, think long term
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