The environments of southern Africa are characterized by variations in rainfall, hydrology, natural resources and agricultural potential. Regional and within country variations in climate, for example, occur both across varying temporal and spatial scales (e.g. periods of drought, in some cases extreme, followed by periods of above-normal rainfall and floods). Reports of land degradation, deforestation and declining ability for the region to feed itself are often made (e.g. Global 2000 Report; Lomborg, 2001). Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, is estimated to have the largest numbers of starving people (even before the current food emergency)—almost 33 per cent were starving in 1996.
Despite these indications of starvation and current food emergencies, the agricultural potential is largely untapped (Global Report, 2000). Recent preliminary assessments, that form part of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (see for example, the Southern African Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, SafMA, 2002) and using a range of data sources (e.g. FAO data, bio fuel consumption rates, population data, maximum crop yields etc), for example, show that despite a few pockets of deficits in some areas, cereal supply exceeds demand for much of the region (see Appendix, Figs. 1-3). Of interest from these figures, particularly Fig. 2 of cereal demand and supply, is that we should essentially be able to feed ourselves in the region. The current emergency, however, stands in contrast to these national food statistics estimations, pointing yet again to the human dimensions of this emergency. Droughts in the region, together with conflict, political instability, high food prices, the impact of HIV aids and other factors that limit people’s access to food (e.g. Sen, 1981) are some of the factors that are heightening the household food security in the region. Indeed some have suggested that the problem is not a lack of agricultural resources in the region but the lack of political momentum and will to tackle poverty head on, bureaucratic inertia and lack of capacity to intervene effectively (UNDP 1977 as cited in Lomborg, 2001 and Deveruex, 2000a).
With this as background, environmental scenarios that may face the region are traced. These scenarios reflect scientific work that is based on models essentially capturing possible impacts associated with climate variability (e.g. ENSO etc); impacts on vegetation and water in the region. Included in this analysis, is some discussion on the interacting human factors (e.g. HIV/AIDS impacts; migration etc) but, as indicated earlier, these are not fully discussed because they have been the focus of other commissioned reports. These interactions are critical, however, and must be heavily underscored and remembered when reading this report.
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