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The impact of HIV/AIDS on Southern Africa's Children

12. Appendix 1: Medical Interventions Assumptions
 
  Disease Prevention
a. vaccination against HIVb. prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT)
Disease Management
a. treatment of opportunistic infectionsb. anti-retroviral therapy for late stage HIV infection
Disease Cure
ridding body of HIV virus
Medical Science Vaccine available in 2010 to 2015 time frame. Mother-to-Child (MTCT) prevention available now. Opportunistic infection treatment is available. ARVs (anti-retroviral) become available 2001 onwards, but coping with mutations is a constant battle which consumes resources. Mutants do not become more virulent. No current drugs available for this. May be invented through genetically engineered agents customised for an individual’s genes. Available in 2015 to 2030 time frame.
Affordable? PMTCT affordable in South Africa, Namibia and Botswana Vaccine affordable in 2010 to 2015 time frame. Opportunistic infection treatment affordable. ARVs not generally affordable outside private sector in next 20 years, except in Botswana where they are made available through government and donors as a “national pilot project” from 2002 onwards. Not affordable for next 20 years.
Deliverable? The same for both PMTCT and vaccine, but scenario dependant: Good in “high road” poor in “low road”. Infrastructure not adequate for delivery for the next 10 years, except perhaps Botswana. An entirely new infrastructure is required. Not available for 20 years.
Acceptable? High Opportunistic infection treatment acceptable ARVs limited by side-effects. Dubious
Effectiveness High ARVs influenced by nutrition, discipline and hygiene. Unknown


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