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Save the Children UK: Southern Africa scenario planning paper

The impact of HIV/AIDS on Southern Africa’s Children: Poverty of Planning and Planning of Poverty


By Professor Alan Whiteside With Su Erskine

Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division
University of Natal
Durban

2/7/2002

This paper owes much to the Shell study and permission to use some of the material and many of the ideas is gratefully acknowledged. In particular I would like to thank Clem Sunter who read and commented on the paper.

SARPN acknowledges permission from SCF UK for permission to post this document on our website
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Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the Southern African Development Community
  Understanding HIV/AIDS
  Understanding the HIV Curve
  Understanding the AIDS Curve
3. The approach in this paper
4. What We Know
5. Gender differences in infection at different ages
6. Change in overall demographic profile of the region
7. Sources for orphan data
8. Vaccines and Treatment
9. Gender and HIV/AIDS
10. Scenarios
  The High Road
  The Low Road
11. Looking to the future
  Options and Decisions
12. Appendix 1: Medical Interventions Assumptions
13. References



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