Southern African Regional Poverty Network (SARPN) SARPN thematic photo
Regional themes > Food security Last update: 2020-09-24  
leftnavspacer
Search






[previous] [table of contents] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK - SOUTHERN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY BRIEFING

5. A Look Ahead to the 2002/2003 Production Season
 
The Threat of El NiСЃo



BUT... Since 1885, there have been 35 El NiСЃo events, of which only 22 (60%) coincided with suppressed rainfall across the region.



First week of JANUARY 2002


First week of FEBRUARY 2002


First week of MARCH 2002


First week of APRIL 2002


First week of MAY 2002


First week of JUNE 2002


At present, climate experts predict an enhanced probability of a weak El NiСЃo event occurring in 2002.

By mid-May, atmospheric indicators were still not displaying the necessary characteristics to confirm the development of a major El NiСЃo event.

The probability of an El NiСЃo event that could affect the next cropping season in Southern Africa decreased from 70% in mid-April to 55% in mid-May, and its expected intensity has also weakened.

RECOVERY EFFORTS ARE REQUIRED

  • Drought is not the only reason for this season’s production shortfall. Low input availability and limited financing were also factors.


  • High market prices over the past months should encourage farmers to plant more maize next year.


  • Hybrid and local seed (especially in Zimbabwe) and drought tolerant varieties are in short supply.


  • Policy constraints must be addressed.


  • Urgent action is required now to break the downward trend in cereal production.


[previous] [table of contents] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]


Octoplus Information Solutions Top of page | Home | Contact SARPN | Disclaimer