The Threat of El NiСЃo
BUT... Since 1885, there have been 35 El NiСЃo events, of which only 22 (60%) coincided with suppressed rainfall across the region.
| First week of JANUARY 2002 |
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| First week of FEBRUARY 2002 |
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| First week of MARCH 2002 |
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| First week of APRIL 2002 |
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| First week of MAY 2002 |
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| First week of JUNE 2002 |
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At present, climate experts predict an enhanced probability of a weak El NiСЃo event occurring in 2002.
By mid-May, atmospheric indicators were still not displaying the necessary characteristics to confirm the development of a major El NiСЃo event.
The probability of an El NiСЃo event that could affect the next cropping season in Southern Africa decreased from 70% in mid-April to 55% in mid-May, and its expected intensity has also weakened.
RECOVERY EFFORTS ARE REQUIRED
- Drought is not the only reason for this season’s production shortfall. Low input availability and limited financing were also factors.
- High market prices over the past months should encourage farmers to plant more maize next year.
- Hybrid and local seed (especially in Zimbabwe) and drought tolerant varieties are in short supply.
- Policy constraints must be addressed.
- Urgent action is required now to break the downward trend in cereal production.
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