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FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK - SOUTHERN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY BRIEFING

3. 2002/2003 FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK
 
2001/2002 Production Estimates

SADC MAIZE PRODUCTION, 2001/02
  2001/2002 Maize Production Change from Previous Year Change form Past 5-Year Average
Angola 579,000 + 22% + 33%
Botswana 4,000 + 100% - 31%
Lesotho 35,000 - 66% - 66%
Malawi 1,539,000 - 10% - 22%
Mozambique 1,236,000 + 8% + 12%
Namibia 27,000 - 4% - 17%
RSA 8,912,000 + 19% + 2%
Swaziland 68,000 - 7% - 24%
Tanzania 2,698,000 + 5% + 12%
Zambia 710,000 - 11 % - 24%
Zimbabwe 481,000 - 67% - 72%
Total 16,289,000 + 3% - 7%
SOURCE: SADC Regional Early Warning Unit, 3 June 2002
SOURCE: FAO/WFP Crop And Food Assessment, 2002


The current estimated 2001/02 maize production in 11 SADC countries included in this analysis is: 16,289,000 Metric Tonnes

This figure is NOT final and will change as countries report their final production estimates.

According the SADC REWU, since 1990, regional maize production has been lower than this year in five seasons.

1990/91: 16,167,000 MT
1991/92: 7,562,000 MT
1994/95: 9,243,000 MT
1997/98: 15,988,000 MT
2000/01: 15,878,000 MT

Meeting Maize Requirements

SADC MAIZE SITUATION(MT), 2002/03
  Production + Stock Domestic Requirements * Import Requirements
Angola 579,000 733,000 - 154,000
Botswana 12,000 120,000 - 108,000
Lesotho 41,000 283,000 - 242,000
Malawi 1,563,000 1,992,000 - 429,000
Mozambique 1,316,000 1,241,000 75,000
Namibia 37,000 126,000 - 89,000
RSA 10,152,000 8,105,000 2,047,000
Swaziland 68,000 139,000 - 71,000
Tanzania 2,751,000 2,905,000 -154,000
Zambia 710,000 1,088,000 - 378,000
Zimbabwe 483,000 2,038,000 - 1,555,000
Total 17,712,000 18,770,000 - 1,058,000
* Excludes carry/over stocks and planned exports
SOURCE: SADC Regional Early Warning Unit, 3 June 2002
SOURCE: FAO/WFP Crop And Food Assessment, 2002


The maize deficit countries will need to import a combined total of: 3,180,000 Metric Tonnes

South Africa normally maintains a six week pipeline of maize stocks (850,000MT), which could leave South Africa with as much as 1.2 million MT of available maize for export. Almost half of this will contribute to filling the 510,000MT maize gap in Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Swaziland. This will leave approximately 700,000MT for other countries in the region, representing 25% of outstanding requirements

The remainder of food imports will need to be sourced from outside the region

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