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Statement from the Ninth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-9)


Held in Harare, Zimbabwe

7–8 September 2005

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During the period October to December 2005, northern DRC and most of southern parts of the SADC region (southwest Angola, most of Zambia, southeastern tip of DRC, southern half of Malawi, most of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, most of Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, and most of South Africa) have an increased chance of above normal rainfall. The northern parts of the SADC region (Southern DRC, most of Angola, western tip of Zambia, northern parts of Zambia, northern half of Malawi and Mozambique and northeast Namibia) are expected to receive normal to below normal rainfall. Southwest Namibia, west South Africa and Madagascar have a high probability of below normal rainfall. Mauritius is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall.

From January to March 2006, northern DRC, extreme northwest Angola and southwest South Africa are expected to receive below-normal rainfall. Most of the SADC region (southern DRC, most of Angola, Zambia Southern Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Swaziland, Lesotho, most of South Africa and northern Madagascar) have an increased chance of normal to abovenormal rainfall, while southern Madagascar and Mauritius are expected to receive normal to below-rainfall.

The current neutral condition of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, one of the factors associated with seasonal rainfall in SADC, is forecast to persist for the next six months. Other climate indicators were also considered in the generation of this outlook.

The Outlook is relevant only to seasonal time-scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to-month variations (intra-seasonal). Users are strongly advised to contact their respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for interpretation of this Outlook, additional guidance and updates.

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